79Au197.0
Most gold coverage tells you the price. This shows you why. Eight macro forces, weighed against each other, give you a single read on where the pressure is and which way it's pointing.
since last update
Real yields ↑ 6bp·Iran ceasefire holding (week 7)·CB buying revised up by WGC·DXY flat at 99.3·GLD outflows slowed·Gold/silver ratio compressed to ~60·Real yields ↑ 6bp·Iran ceasefire holding (week 7)·CB buying revised up by WGC·DXY flat at 99.3·GLD outflows slowed·Gold/silver ratio compressed to ~60·Real yields ↑ 6bp·Iran ceasefire holding (week 7)·CB buying revised up by WGC·DXY flat at 99.3·GLD outflows slowed·Gold/silver ratio compressed to ~60·
Typically refreshed every 1–2 weeks · more often when something material breaks
Today's read
Central banks and Mid-East risk are running the show. Real rates are loud — but no longer leading.
Gold is sitting at records despite a real 10-year yield near 2.2%. The textbook headwind isn't gone, but a structural buyer (central banks) and a haven premium (Iran, Ukraine) are outweighing it.
REGIMEStructural / haven driven
Watch this weekthree things that could move it
May CPI · ~Jun 11
Hot print revives stagflation read; cool print gives Fed cover.
June FOMC · Jun 16–17
First meeting under incoming chair Warsh. Hawkish surprise = sharp pullback.
Iran ceasefire holding?
Day-to-day. Hormuz traffic still ~5% of normal.
PRESSURE GAUGEcomposite reading · 0–100
Higher = more upward pressure on gold
TUG-OF-WARwho's pulling, how hard
Pulling Down
Tug-of-war on price8 forces · 6 pulling · 2 monitoring
Pulling UpReal yields · FOMC
Jewelry · India/China
Au
Official sector
Risk · haven flows
CPI · breakevens
Production · costs
Monitoring · tracked but not pulling right now
US DollarDXY ~99.3; range-bound 97–99 all yearETF FlowsRecord NA outflow in March; record Eastern inflows; positioning healthier
0.40total down-pull
+0.92net
1.32total up-pull
Who's doing the work?
Today's regime: central banks and geopolitics are doing the work. Real rates matter less than they used to.
Bullish pull Bearish pull Neutral / wash
THE EIGHT FORCESPrimary, secondary, and backgroundclick any card for the deeper read
PRIMARY · doing most of the pulling
Central Banks
Official sector
UP
22%
steady
Central banks have been buying gold by the tonne for four years straight — and they aren't price-sensitive. That's the floor under this whole bull market.
trend
Geopolitics & Haven
Risk · haven flows
UP
18%
fading
When investors are scared, they buy gold. Right now there's a war premium baked into the price — and it's slowly bleeding out as the ceasefire holds.
trend
Real Rates & Fed
Real yields · FOMC
DOWN
16%
rising
When you can earn ~2% real on Treasuries, holding gold (which pays nothing) costs you something. Right now real rates are uncomfortably high — gold's biggest headwind.
trend
Inflation
CPI · breakevens
UP
12%
rising
Sticky inflation makes gold attractive as a store of value. But it also keeps the Fed hawkish — so the two effects partially cancel.
trend
SECONDARY · meaningful, not dominant
US Dollar
DXY
FLAT
10%
steady
Gold and the dollar usually trade opposite each other. Right now the dollar is going sideways — a wash for gold, mildly supportive structurally.
trend
ETF Flows
Investor positioning
FLAT
8%
steady
Western investors sold gold in March's risk-off; Indian and Chinese investors bought. The flows roughly cancel — and the spec longs got cleaned out, so the downside is less fragile.
trend
BACKGROUND · slow-moving, sets the floor
Physical Demand
Jewelry · India/China
DOWN
8%
steady
When gold gets this expensive, ordinary buyers (jewelry, gifts) pull back. That's a small drag on demand — but the floor is still surprisingly firm in India.
trend
Mine Supply
Production · costs
UP
6%
steady
Mining gold is getting harder and more expensive. New supply grows ~1-2% a year — a slow tailwind, not a market mover.
trend
TIMINGNow vs. Soon vs. Structuraldon't confuse imminent volatility with the slow tectonic shifts
Now· days
May CPI~Jun 11
June FOMCJun 16–17
Iran ceasefireongoing
Fed handoverfresh
Soon· weeks
ECB · BOJ meetingsJun–Jul
Summer demand lullJun–Aug
Q3 CPI/PCE cycleJul–Sep
Russia–Ukraineweeks
Structural· months → years
CB buying regimeongoing 2022→
Dollar de-anchoringmulti-year
US fiscal trajectorymulti-year
BRICS settlementmulti-year
FORCES IN ORBITThe eight forces, planetarium viewcloser to the sun = heavier weight in the current regime
Closer to the sun = heavier weight in the current regime. Each planet glows in its direction-color.
What if?click any scenario to stress-test the read · hover to preview
CURRENT
65leans UP
HOVER A SCENARIO
— preview appears here —
Forward calendar · next ~16 weeks
Jun 11
May CPI
Jun 16–17
FOMC + dots
Jun 27
May PCE
Jul 3
Jun NFP
Jul 16
Jun CPI
Jul 30
FOMC (no dots)
Aug 9
OPEC+ meeting
Sep 16
FOMC + dots
Historical playbookhow gold has behaved in episodes like this
1970s stagflation
Gold ~+2,300% over the decade
Persistent inflation + loss of confidence = gold's golden era.
Gulf War 1990
+7.5% in 6 months
Wars in oil regions reliably move gold.
9/11 / 2001
+5.9% in 1 month
Crisis flight to safety is fast and binary.
2008–2011 bull
+170% over 3 years
QE and real-yield crush created the post-crisis bull.
Russia invasion 2022
+8.2% in 1 month, then the regime change
The reserve-freeze rewrote the central bank playbook.
LEARN THE MECHANICSFive quick explainersno jargon, 90 seconds each
What does the Fed have to do with gold?
Rates → real yields → opportunity cost → price
Read
Why are central banks suddenly buying so much gold?
Because in 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's reserves.
Read
What's a "real yield" and why do I keep hearing about it?
Nominal yield minus inflation = your actual return.
Read
Physical gold vs. an ETF like GLD — what's the difference?
Same exposure, very different logistics.
Read
Why do wars and crises move gold?
Money looks for somewhere safe that nobody else can revoke.
Read
How investors actually get gold exposure
Physical (coins, bars)
via Bullion dealers, mints
+No counterparty risk
−Storage, insurance, wide spreads
GLD
via Brokerage account
+Most liquid; tracks spot well
−0.40% expense ratio (higher than peers)
IAU
via Brokerage account
+Lower expense ratio (0.25%); same exposure as GLD
−Slightly less liquid
GLDM, BAR, SGOL
via Brokerage account
+Lowest expense ratios (~0.10–0.17%)
−Younger, less institutional flow
Miners (GDX, GDXJ)
via Brokerage account
+Operating leverage to gold price
−Equity risk; can underperform gold
Futures (GC)
via Futures broker
+Leverage, no storage
−Margin, expiration, sophistication required
Not a recommendation of any specific vehicle — just a map. Most cost-conscious investors use the lower-fee ETFs (IAU, GLDM, BAR, SGOL); most who want the metal in hand use physical.
DISCLOSUREThe author holds positions in gold-tracking ETFs (GLD, IAU). Informational only — not financial advice.
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Au · 79 · 197.0